Dusty Baker on the Joey Votto signing: “It means a lot not only for the franchise but for the city. It means that kids grow up emulating Joey Votto. In modern baseball, either a guy declares free agency or the team trades him. People don’t basically stay around that long. It means a lot to city to have Joey as the face of the franchise. He’s a very good role model for the task.”

Baker was surprised by the deal.

“I was surprised by the speed of which it was accomplished,” he said. “Usually deals don’t come together this quickly.”

Baker thinks the deal is a good sign for smaller markets.

“It’s hard to compete with the bigger markets,” Baker said. “You see the guys who left or couldn’t come up with a deal — I don’t know the circumstances — they usually end up in big markets. The New Yorks, LAs, Philly, Chicago, Detroit. Look at Anaheim they sign a free almost every year.

“I’m glad for Joey. This guy is dedicated. He works hard. I’m extremely happy for him. I think I’ll change my son’s position for shortstop to third base.”

Baker thinks Reds’ ownership has a plan to be competitive, despite dedicating so much payroll to Votto.

“People on the business side . . . you don’t get to own team without having a business sense,” he said. “People who own teams are among the top business people in the country. They didn’t get to that point by being foolish with their money.”

You can read several things into Joey Votto’s mega-millions deal with Reds:

–The club is convinced its revenue stream will increase. A Reds insider told me as much. Part of that comes from national television, part of MLB other new media revenue sources.

–The club is convinced that it will be to get a new local deal with Fox Sports Ohio before the current one expires in 2016. The Reds won’t be getting anywhere near with the Angels and Rangers got. But, say they get a $10 million a year bump, that covers the difference between Votto’s salary this year ($11 million) and what he’s getting when the 10-year, $225 million extension kicks in.

Was it risky to agree to such a huge deal? Certainly. Votto isn’t likely to be the same player at 38 as he is at 28. But he takes great care of himself. He plays a position that is less taxing than outfield or the middle infield.

But it would have been just as risky to let Votto walk. The current ownership is trying to rebuild credibility with the long-suffering fan base. It’s hard to do that when you let your best player walk.

The comparison a lot of people are making is with the Ken Griffey Jr. deal. That didn’t work out for the Reds because Griffey was injured so much. If Votto suddenly becomes injury-prone, this deal won’t work out either.

But there are differences. The current owner, Bob Castellini, understands baseball a lot better than Carl Lindner did. Lindner thought that getting Griffey was enough. The Reds added Griffey’s big salary and kept the overall payroll about the same.

Castellini knows the Reds need more than Votto. I think Castellini plans to move the payroll toward $100 million over the next couple of years. If they do that, Votto is affordable because the Reds are fairly deep in young (read cheap) talent.

While Castellini said a deal with Votto did not preclude a deal with Brandon Phillips, Phillips’ words “I just want to play baseball” and body language yesterday told me the Reds aren’t offering him what he wants.

The Reds have other options among middle infielders. Didi Gregorius could be ready by next season. Billy Hamilton could be ready by 2014. They also have Henry Rodriguez. He hit .305 and .320 the last two years. One baseball operations type told me Rodriguez could hold his own at the plate right now.

All would be a dropoff from Phillips. He’s a very good player. But, I’ll repeat what a Reds insider told me: Phillips isn’t going to compete for the MVP every year. Votto is.

Lots and lots and lots of news out of Redsland today. We’re going to have some interesting posts for you over the next several days, especially once we hear the particulars of the Votto deal.

Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like everything we’ve heard from the Reds over the last few days signals a change in direction that we can all be very happy with. Consider the following items:

1. Juan Francisco is traded, seemingly upgrading Todd Frazier to Rolen’s caddy and heir-apparent.

2. The Reds decide to carry only 11 pitchers.

3. Aroldis Chapman will start the season in the bullpen, but even Baker’s comments indicate that this is a temporary measure while Bray gets ready.

4. Joey Votto has a long term contract extension almost complete.

The Reds were always too high on Francisco, but this year, they seemed finally willing to acknowledge that he doesn’t have a place on the team. Frazier will get his at bats and there is now a much smaller risk that third turns into a disaster position for the Reds.

In recent years, the 12th pitcher has almost never been used. However, there have been a number of times when they could have used another man off the bench.

The organization also seems to fully realize that Chapman’s future should be as a starter. This is the only item of the four where there might be some debate, but given Baker’s quotes about Chapman starting and the recent bullpen damage, I am going to choose to believe them and predict that Chapman will start games for the Reds at some point this year.

And then there’s Votto. This contract, however it is structured, indicates that the Reds want more than a two year window. The Reds now have Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Leake, Marshall, Cozart, Mesoraco, and Latos under control until at least 2015. That’s a pretty solid core right there even if the two rookies don’t perform.

I have been following the Reds my entire life and I haven’t been this happy with the organization since I was kid. We’ll see if they continue to make the right decisions, but I find myself very optimistic.

The Reds set their roster today, optioning Paul Janish to Triple-A, and set their rotation by sending Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen. “Things are always subject to change,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “It was a very, very tough decision, big-time.”

The rotation: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey.

The bullpen: Chapman, Sean Marshall, Sam LeCure, Bill Bray, Logan Ondrusek, Jose Arredondo.

The catchers: Devin Mesoraco, Ryan Hanigan.

The infielders: Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Zack Cozart, Scott Rolen, Miguel Cairo, Wilson Valdez, Todd Frazier, Willie Harris.

The outfielders: Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Ludwick, Chris Heisey.

The Reds will go with 11 pitchers out of camp because of the off day on Friday.

“Then, we’ll have to make some more decisions,” Baker said.

Janish hit around .300 this spring and showed good pop.

“It’s real tough,” Baker said. “There’s always going to be someone who had a good camp. This is why I despise this week more than any week in the whole year. You want guys to have a good camp.

“There’s a good chance he could be back at some point. There’s a great chance of that.”

Janish was the starting shortstop last year.

“Things change year to year,” Baker said. “The main thing that’s within my power is to give an opportunity to a player. Sometimes, the decision is mine. Sometimes, the decision is what’s best for the organization. The thing I can do is give people an opportunity.

“I gave Paul an opportunity last year until Cozart came along. That’s the nature of this game. It’s yours until you nail it down or until someone else nails it down. Now, it’s Cozart’s to nail it down. If he doesn’t, it will be someone else after that.”

Janish is a good guy, a good teammate.

“Very tough decision,” Baker said. “He’s still part of the family.”

Janish lost out to Valdez, who the Reds traded for from Philadelphia.

“He can play short,” Baker said. “He can play different positions. He came from a winning environment.”

The Chapman decision was difficult also.

“He’ can be one of our best starters or relievers — both,” Baker said. “It’s a situation where starting out early in the season your starters are lucky to go five, six innings. We needed to shore up our bullpen. The bullpen does at least a third to half the work.”

Baker made it clear Chapman’s future is as a starter.

“He’s going to be a starter, a very good starter,” Baker said. “He’s on board with with it. He anticipated it. He’s a smart kid. He said he thought as much because he lost (Nick) Masset and (Ryan) Madson. Billy Bray isn’t as sharp. He’s not a candidate to be a late-inning lefty guy.

“It was a process of elimination.”

With Opening Day just four days away, here is a recap of this year’s Reds Spring Training:

• Aroldis Chapman posted a 1.12 WHIP in 17 IP this Spring.  He struck out eighteen batters and walked just two.  The main question about Chapman, during his career, has been his command.   He seemed to make significant strides this Spring.  As a result, I believe Chapman has cemented a spot in the rotation.
• Homer Bailey did not pitch particularly well this Spring.  Out of options, Bailey will make the roster barring an unforeseen trade.   The only questions seems to be whether he will start or pitch out of the bullpen.
• Zack Cozart had a very good Spring, hitting .377.  He led the team in hits through Saturday.
• Devin Mesoraco played very solid defense this Spring.  He and Ryan Hanigan will split the catching duties this year.
• It is possible that Mike Leake could be optioned to AAA to begin the season.  Leake didn’t pitch particularly well this Spring.  Unlike Bailey, however, Leake has options remaining.
• Ryan Madson never took the mound this Spring.  He flew back to Cincinnati on March 23^rd to visit with Dr. Timothy Kremchek.  According to Kremchek, Madson’s elbow will require season ending surgery.  Kremchek believes the injury was a recent one.  According to Mark Sheldon, the Reds did not have an injury insurance policy to cover Madson’s salary ($8.5 million).  Comments by Walt Jocketty indicate Sean Marshall will begin the season as the Red’s closer.
• Opposing hitters hit just .239 against Matt Latos this Spring.  He posted a WHIP of 1.02.  You can make a very strong argument that Latos, not Cueto, is the staff ace.
• Bronson Arroyo did not pitch particularly well this Spring.  He will make $7 million this season.  You can make an argument for Arroyo being the odd-man out in the rotation.  As the staff veteran, however, he will be in the rotation.  Look for Arroyo to be sandwiched between hard throwers Latos and Chapman.
• Jeff Francis pitched reasonably well despite a 6.65 ERA.  He posted a WHIP of 1.22 in 23 IP.  Through Saturday, he logged more innings than any other Reds starter.  He has expressed a willingness to go to AAA or pitch out of the bullpen.  A veteran left-hander, Francis will likely be called upon to pitch in the rotation at some point this year.   Francis and Chapman are the only left-handed options for the rotation.
• Juan Francisco came to camp out of shape.  Dusty Baker was clearly annoyed.    To make matters worse, he hit .196 and struck out sixteen times in 51 plate appearances.  He didn’t draw a walk and played poor defensively.  Out of options, he was traded to the Braves this morning for twenty-five year old relief pitching prospect, J.J. Hoover.
• Todd Frazier had a great spring, leading the team with five homeruns and fifteen RBI’s.  Frazier or Willie Harris will make the roster coming out of spring training.  Both players are versatile.  Harris hits from the left side.  Frazier has more power.
• Jay Bruce came to camp fifteen pounds leaner.  He hit .353 and drove in ten runs in 19 games.  He posted a pair of outfield assists and looks primed to have a big year.  Remember, he’s only 24 years old.
• Drew Stubbs hit .267 and struck out 15 times in 48 plate appearances (31%).   He will begin the regular season as the Reds centerfielder.  He will attempt to cut down on his career 29% strikeout rate.
• So far, there has been no contract extension for Brandon Phillips nor Joey Votto.   Phillips will become a free agent at the end of this season.  Votto will become a free agent at the end of the 2013 season.  The long-term future of the Red’s club will depend, in large part, to the outcome of these negotiations.
• Scott Rolen is healthy.   He hit .349 and posted a .440 OBP in 19 games.  If Rolen can play 120-130 games this season, it will make a significant impact on this club’s output.
• Both Ryan Ludwick and Chris Heisey performed reasonably well this Spring.  Barring a trade, they will share leftfield duties.
• Ryan Masset will start the season on the disabled list.  Jose Arredondo and Bill Bray will set up for Marshall.
• Denis Phipps, Billy Hamilton, Neftali Soto, Henry Rodriguez,  Daniel Corcino, Donald Lutz, and Didi Gregorius impressed this spring.  The Reds traded three of their top prospects to San Diego in the deal that brought Matt Latos to Cincinnati.  Nonetheless, the cupboard is not bare.

If there’s one thing we’ve noticed is that making those final cuts are difficult. Look no further than the status of Mike Leake. A couple of days ago, John Fay posted that there are 12 healthy pitchers in camp. You would think those 12 (including non-roster invitee Jeff Francis) might be the 12. Well, Francis isn’t one you would think as a delegate for ‘pen, dropping to 11. The speculation two days ago was that Leake was in the clear.

“Why wouldn’t he be?” Baker said. “He’s had two good years. We feel he’s ready. He’s stretched out pretty good. This is more of tune-up. This is more of keeping-him-sharp thing.”

Okay. Leake is in the starting rotation. Er, um, not so fast.

Just today, Fay published another post where it seems there’s a little waffling by Baker.

“We got (Johnny) Cueto, (Mat) Latos, Bronson (Arroyo),” he said

And Leake?

“I didn’t say Leake,” he said.

Huh? Am I making something out of nothing here? One day it appears Leake’s in, two days later, no? Has that much changed in two days?

Maybe so. Aroldis Chapman’s spring has made the starting rotation the “hot topic” of the past couple of days. With the performance he’s authored, it would be extremely difficult to deny him a spot. Also, here’s another possibility.

Mike Leake has options. Homer Bailey doesn’t. It may come down to just that. If you are hesitant to put Bailey in the ‘pen, Leake could go there, but he’s not the same pitcher. You would be better served, both in the short-term and long-term, to send Leake to Louisville to remain a starter if he’s not going to be one of the five in Cincinnati.

And I feel the same about Chapman.

If Dusty’s is making everyone play a guessing game, as it appears he’s done with these quotes, I can’t understand the secrecy surrounding the staff. The sooner these guys know, the better.

When it comes down to it, I don’t see how you can leave Leake out of the Cincinnati rotation. I know last season is over and done, but where would the Reds have been last season without the services of Mike Leake?

——————————

Like what you’re reading? Stay up-to-date on all things Reds by following Blog Red Machine on Twitter (@blogredmachine). Also, please take a minute and “Like” our page on Facebook!

The one portion of the Reds roster that has taken the biggest hit has unquestionably been the bullpen. Maybe the only spot, knock on wood. Ryan Madson: Tommy John surgery, out for the season. Nick Masset: shoulder, will begin the season on the disabled list. That made this one slightly more difficult as to who would close and who would, temporarily, take Masset’s place on the Opening Day roster.

You have, for the moment, five healthy bodies.

The Locks

Sean Marshall

Marshall is most likely to be the team’s primary closer despite the fact Reds manager Dusty Baker has concerns over working Marshall three or more days in a row. The infamous “closer by committee” has reared its head. In making Marshall as your closer, you do remove him from the role in which he was brought in to perform.

Bill Bray

Concerns over a nagging groin injury had the Reds fan base worries as Bray has been a valuable member of the ‘pen for the past two seasons. Bray can get you one batter or go a full inning depending on the situation.

And those high socks…

Logan Ondrusek

Played a little Jekyll and Hyde with us last season. Before hitting the DL, Ondrusek was one of baseball’s top relievers. After that time, he was hittable and lost his effectiveness. If you can point to one reliever that has performed well this spring, it is Logan. (Yes, Marshall has been pretty good as of late, too.)

Jose Arredondo

2011 was the “year after Tommy John” and Arredondo was solid, but not spectacular. Being removed from the “year”, we may yet see the best he can offer. That should provide for some optimism for his 2012 season. If it’s anything like his performance in 2008 campaign when he was an Angel, we could witness something special.

Sam LeCure

LeCure’s versatility provides how extremely important he is to the Reds. Unlike last spring, LeCure has struggled this spring. He knows his role with the club and that is comforting. Glad the ‘stache is back.

Nick Masset

Once he returns from the DL, he’s got a spot. Masset could be the guy that picks up save opportunities if Marshall is unable to go…if he’s able to do so. At one time, he was touted as “the next Reds closer”. There’s a reason for that. When Masset has his control, he is completely unhittable. Plus, as John Fay tweeted, Masset’s curve was devastating last season.

The Questions

Aroldis Chapman

I only list Chapman here because there is still some thought he could be the in the ‘pen considering there are not as many bodies as there are spots available. I hope to never see Chapman enter a game from via the ‘pen unless it’s to take the mound in the first inning.

Homer Bailey

Funny how things may end up working out for Homer. Yesterday I stated that some have grown weary of the inconsistency. A move to the ‘pen will undoubtedly bring about the claims/comments that he takes too long to get loose so he can’t be effective out of the bullpen.

He may have to find a way to correct that measure in order to procure a roster spot. In year’s past, there has been limited chatter about having Bailey be the closer. Again, “corrective measures” would need to be taken.

The Great Unknown

With the recent work out of Mike Gonzalez, he could be deemed a viable piece. There aren’t many other options, as far a free agents go, that are available regardless if you are looking for a righty or lefty.

And staying within the organization isn’t a spectacular option either. As I noted yesterday, Jordan Smith is DL bound and Josh Judy cleared waivers and accepted his assignment to Louisville. The only other player on the 40-man that has MLB experience as a pitcher is Andrew Brackman, and that is all of three games and 2.1 innings.

There’s is no easy fix considering the health of the guys that are currently on the 40-man and own previous MLB experience. Those that do not, are not deemed as ready…and that leaves the thoughts of making yet another trade. Considering the Reds dealt away some of their top prospects this past winter, pursuing that route may be out of the question.

There are fewer pieces, but are the Reds that desperate? We’ll see as Opening Day is a mere handful of days away…

——————————

Like what you’re reading? Stay up-to-date on all things Reds by following Blog Red Machine on Twitter (@blogredmachine). Also, please take a minute and “Like” our page on Facebook!

The Reds can’t option Mike Leake to the minors and bring him back to start on April 11 as the fifth starter. A player must be in the minors for 10 days before being brought back.

When asked about the rotation Saturday, Reds manager Dusty Baker didn’t include Leake as a definite.

“We got (Johnny) Cueto, (Mat) Latos, Bronson (Arroyo),” he said

And Leake?

“I didn’t say Leake,” he said.

Leake, Homer Bailey and Aroldis Chapman are in the rotation mix. Chapman and Leake have options; Bailey doesn’t.

The Reds also have to decide what to with Jeff Francis, who remains in camp.

While waiting for a decision on the rotation, I found myself wondering, if they skipped the fifth starter as often as possible, how many times the Reds had to use one. I played around with the schedule in iCal (whichever staffer made that available as download should get a raise) and I came up with this (it only adds up to 161 games because it would be Latos turn on the last day of the season and, unless it were vital, I assume the Reds would have someone spot start to line things up for the inevitable playoff series):

1st starter – 35 starts
2nd starer – 35
3rd starter – 34
4th starter – 32
5th starer – 25

So, if Chapman does get the fifth spot, they could limit him to 25 starts. At 5 innings/start, that’s 125 innings. If he averages 6IP/start it would be 150. So yes, the inning can be sufficiently limited. At least, in an ideal world.

This is what happens when I have just a little too much time before bed.

The Reds started Friday with 28 players still in camp. Three have to go before Opening Day. “We’re getting down to it,” Dusty Baker said.

A lot of the roster is set. The final two spots for positions players will come down to Juan Francisco, Todd Frazier, Willie Harris, Paul Janish and Wilson Valdez. Francisco and Valdez are out of options.

“They all bring some strengths and weaknesses to the table,” Baker said. “It depends if we use their strengths and live with their weaknesses in the present, or can they go down and get better.

“When I got sent to the minor leagues, I didn’t really agree with it, but it was the correct thing: It’s better for some young players to go play than sit on the bench and spot playing, especially when you’re seeing improvement.”

The decisions won’t be easy.

“It’s a very difficult thing,” Baker said. “You can’t keep everybody. If you could keep 28, it would be no problem. But then you’d probably want 30. I’m sure everyone is trying to make the roster for us. That’s the nature of the game.”

Frazier is OK with life on the bubble.

“Right now, it’s put interesting to see what’s going to unfold,” Frazier said. “I’ve never been this far in camp. It’s pretty exciting, just to know you’re with the team this far, to know this might be your year to go.”

“I’m never nervous. I’m not a nervous guy. I’m always happy-go-lucky. I try to keep everything to myself with that stuff. Everything will be fine.”

Frazier has had a good spring. He leads the team with four home runs and 11 doubles.

“I think I have shown them I can play,” he said. “Three or four days ago, I slowed down a little bit. It’s going to happen. Then yesterday, you have a game like that (two doubles). It puts the game of baseball in perspective. I think I’ve proved that I belong playing in the major leagues — for sure.”

Frazier has begun packing his bags. But he doesn’t know if they’ll be going to Cincinnati or Louisville.

“Everything is up in the air,” he said. “I’ll move my two luggage bags to wherever they’ve got to go. We’ll see. We’ll see when they want to decided. When that time comes, hopefully it will be a good time.”

FRANCIS TO ‘PEN? Left-hander Jeff Francis remains on the roster but it looks like the fifth spot in the rotation will come down to Homer Bailey or Aroldis Chapman. Could he make it as a reliever?

“He’s never done it before,” Baker said. “There’s a thousand questions, and some of them I don’t have answers to yet. Rarely do you go into a season with all your questions answered.”

PLAYERS AVAILABLE: As teams whittle their rosters, players become available. The Reds could look at bringing someone in.

“I think probably everybody is going to do that,” Baker said. “Some guys are going to get picked up. There are some guys who might not fit on their team who fit elsewhere. I don’t even know who’s available. That’s the guys upstairs job.

“I hear bit and pieces. There’s going to be a pool of guys.”