The Redleg Nation editorial staff put together a fine article on the recent developments regarding Aroldis Chapman’s move back to the bullpen. Word reached me late as I was in Jalalabad, a city near the Pakistan border that is very active — if you know what I mean. The 101st Airborne – the Screaming Eagles – are there. So you know it’s a busy place.

But back to the Aroldis Decision. The Nation, quite frankly, seems to be in an uproar. My two cents on this will be short and sweet.

This is a short-term decision. In other words, this came from Dusty Baker and Bryan Price. Chapman is a long term investment and I had visions of him being a Randy Johnson type of starter when Uncle Walt introduced him to the Cincinnati media years ago. Starting him out in the bullpen was fine. Sparky Anderson did that with Young Don Gullett in 1970 and when Young Don Gullett became a starter in 1971, he posted a 16-6 record.

Starting Chapman was a bit risky but worth it. A Cueto-Latos-Chapman trio would be formidable, if healthy. Add No-Hit Homer and always-reliable Arroyo and you have one hell of a starting rotation. And when the Reds signed Jonathan Broxton to a $21 million contract, well, that was icing on the cake. It was a done deal. Chapman would be starting. I was hoping he would start Opening Day.

But then when Dusty Baker went to the media on this and Chapman expressed a desire to stay in the bullpen, I knew it was over. Personally, I like Dusty. I think he would be a great guy to go out with it and have a few beers and talk baseball. But this decision is a short-term one, not for the long-term benefit of the Reds as an organization.

The Reds have done so many things right the last few years. Signing Joey long term, keeping Phillips and Bruce on the right side, getting a genuine leadoff hitter and trading for Mat Latos.

This can still be corrected but things would have to go wrong. We’ve seen in the last few days some near-misses with Latos and Arroyo. The Reds could alter their course (again) in June or July and make the Chapman move if Broxton or J.J. Hoover are lights out in the bullpen.

But for now, the Reds (and Dusty Baker) are going the conservative route. The safe route. The predictable route. And we all saw what that got us when the Reds were ahead of the Giants 2-0 in the playoffs.

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.

SI put up this article, “20 Ways to Improve Baseball Right Now”, by Jay Jaffe…

Personally, there are some I agree with wholeheartedly, others I disagree with just as wholeheartedly…

Agree:

- #1 Opening Day a National Holiday and returning the Opening game to Cincinnati : No brainer, right?
– #2 Revamp the TV blackout policy : With our team televising a vast, vast majority of their games…how much of an effect does this have?
– #5 Expand Instant Replay : Another one that seems like a no brainer to me.
– #6 Cull the umps : Nothing makes me crazier (and that’s a high bar, believe me) than umps who are aggressive towards players. Nobody pays to see the umps.
– #13 Penalize performance-enhancing drug use via stronger suspensions : First time caught, season long suspension. Second time caught, find a new line of work.
– #15 Reform the Hall of Fame voting : He talks about the character clause for getting in mostly, which I don’t completely agree with, but he also talks about who votes and on that one I’m all in.
– #16 Induct Marvin Miller and Curt Flood into the Hall of Fame, as well as Tim Raines : I think all three are HOFers, though I know some will disagree about The Rock.
– #17 Let Vin Scully call the World Series : No, we’re stuck with Tim McCarver. Ugh.
– #18 Enhance the stats on every scoreboard and broadcast : It’s getting better, but much too slowly.
– #19 Stop the war on advanced statistics : Not much different than #18, seems like a no brainer to me.
– #20 More tacos at ballparks, and better beer, too : I’m a beer wimp, but I love tacos and I’m sure some of my beer drinkin’ friends with less pedestrian tastes will agree with this one.

And the ones I completely disagree with:

- #4 Adopt the designated hitter in both leagues : I hate the DH with all the power that I can muster. Though I believe this is coming b/c teams are playing interleague play every day and not just a stretch and the NL teams can’t set their teams up for interleague play. I still hate it though.
– #7 Keep the World Baseball Classic spirit going by sending regular season baseball overseas : Good God, no. I hate the WBC enough, the last thing that MLB needs to learn from the NFL is sending regular season games overseas. It’s idiotic.
– #9 Expand to Montreal, and Puerto Rico as well: I do agree that 30 is a stupid number and 2 more teams should be added. And Puerto Rico might be an interesting idea, but not Montreal, they had their shot. I’d imagine there are cities in the US that would embrace a major league team and putting another team in markets like NY/NJ or Chi might lessen their economic superiority.
– #10 Sell the Mets : No way, I love it when teams from NY are getting kicked around. Sorry.
– #14 Suspend players for DUI and domestic abuse : I’d be afraid that suspensions would be handed out before the legal system ran its course or, like King Roger in the NFL, the penalties/incidents wouldn’t be handled in an even handed method. I’m not excusing players for being bad citizens, but am concerned that MLB would do this any better than the NFL does, which does it BADLY.

Give it a read and let us know which ones you love, abhor, and all those in between…

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.

The Bullpen
2012 Pitching Line: 434.1 IP, 478 K, 181 BB, 2.65 ERA
2013 Projection: 455 IP, 500 K, 190 BB, 2.80 ERA

2012 WAR: 6.3
2013 Best Guess: 6.0*
Projected Difference: -0.3
2013 Ceiling: 8.0
2013 Floor: 4.0

*This number does include Chapman’s WAR, which I also projected on Monday.

Hey, the season starts on Monday and we still don’t exactly know who’s going to be in the bullpen. If it were up to me, I’d take: Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Broxton, Sean Marshall, Sam Lecure, Alfredo Simone, J.J. Hoover, and (probably) Jose Arredondo. I suspect, however, that Logan Ondrusek will be coming north, and I’m accounting for that in the projection. I’ll update if things change.

One good thing about the Chapman decision is that if the Reds get through six with a lead, the game should pretty much be over. Throwing Marshall, Broxton, and Chapman at any team, well, that’s going to be scary for them. I’d also be comfortable with Lecure, Simon, and Hoover in high leverage situations. This is a really good bullpen.

Of course, it will likely be hampered a bit by Logan Ondrusek. I’m sure he’s a nice guy, but there is just know way he keeps this up. His peripherals are crazily bad. You just can’t walk five batters per nine innings while only striking out six and survive long in the majors. I shudder at the though of important innings going to him. If he makes the team, he should be last-man-out, mop-up-duty-only.

Arredondo also has some questionable peripherals, but his k-rate makes him less of a liability than Ondrusek.

All in all, this should, once again, be one of the best bullpens in the league. Expect a few more innings than they threw last year (second fewest in baseball) as the starters are unlikely to hold up quite as well, and a bit of a drop from Chapman. A full season of Broxton should help make up for that drop, though.

On Friday I’ll wrap things up, but I’ll give you a hint: This is probably going to be a good year to root for the Reds.

Redleg Nation Season Preview Schedule

Joey Votto – 2/27
Brandon Phillips – 3/1
Todd Frazier – 3/4
Zack Cozart – 3/6
Ryan Ludwick – 3/8
Shin-Soo Choo – 3/11
Jay Bruce – 3/13
Ryan Hanigan & Devin Mesoraco – 3/15
Bench – 3/18
Johnny Cueto & Mat Latos – 3/20
Homer Bailey & Bronson Arroyo – 3/22
Aroldis Chapman & Mike Leake – 3/25
Bullpen – 3/27
Updates & Preview Wrap-Up – 3/29

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.

The Reds announced yesterday that Devin Mesoraco has made the Opening Day roster, while Miguel Olivo has been offered an opportunity to remain with the organization in Louisville.

Tuesday was the deadline for the Reds to either place non-roster invite Miguel Olivo on the big league roster or offer him a $100,000 retention bonus to report to Triple-A Louisville. The club offered the bonus and Olivo is still mulling his options before deciding.

“I would hate to see him go,” manager Dusty Baker said. “Sometimes, contractual things supersede, sort of preclude what you want to do.”

There was a little hubbub over Baker’s quote in the comment section yesterday. I could be wrong, and I am wrong more often than I am right, but it reads to me that Baker’s quote was only with respect to Olivo’s role in the organization, not who he prefers as the #2 behind Ryan Hanigan.

In the same article, Mark Sheldon reports that J.J. Hoover is still waiting for a decision on where he will begin his season.

“Oh yeah, it’s just the unknown,” Hoover said of waiting to see if he makes the 25-man roster. “I’m prepared for anything. I’m prepared for whatever decision happens. But, it would be nice to get a decision soon.”

…

“I’ve done everything I can performance-wise up to this point,” Hoover said. “I feel confident with what I’ve done. I understand the business side of things. I’ll take the chips where they fall.”

The Reds decision appears to be boiling down to five relievers competing for 3 spots. Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, and LeCure are locks. That leaves Jose Arredondo, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon, Manny Parra, and J.J. Hoover for the final bullpen roles.

There is conflicting information from the Reds beat writers about who has options left. Some reports indicate that only Hoover has options. It appears to me that both Hoover and Ondrusek have options remaining.

Ondrusek was optioned to the minors in both 2010 and 2012. Prior to the 2009 season, he was left off the 40-man roster and exposed to the Rule V draft. He passed through waivers, cleared the draft and was outrighted to the Reds high-A club – that didn’t require an option. In 2011, he spent the entire year on the major league roster. That would mean Ondrusek has a 3rd option year still remaining. I think that makes the Reds decision a little easier.

Dusty Baker’s comments from earlier this week indicate that Alfredo Simon might be the one on the bubble. He participated in the WBC and pitched very little. Simon threw 2 innings last night, surrending 3 hits, a walk, and the Cubs only run.

I believe that Hoover is the best reliever of the five. However, Jocketty showed a willingness to sacrifice talent on the 25-man roster for depth when he optioned Todd Frazier to AAA last year. Don’t be surprised if the same thing happens this year to Hoover.

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.

Over the weekend, Carson Cistulli at FanGraphs had this note about JJ Hoover. Go check it out.

I really hope Hoover makes the Cincinnati Opening Day roster. The kid can pitch.

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.

In this week’s edition of Redleg Nation Radio, Doug Gray and I got together for more pre-season Reds talk. Topics included the latest in the ongoing Aroldis Chapman drama, a scouting report on Mike Leake, and some minor league prospect talk. Enjoy!

You can listen with the player at the bottom of this post or right-click here to download the mp3 file to listen at your leisure. For links to all previous episodes of Redleg Nation Radio, check out the podcast’s home page.

To subscribe via iTunes, click here:

For the RSS feed, click here.

Download audio file (RNR-ST-Week-4.mp3)

—–

Many thanks to Friend of the Nation — and huge Reds fan — Freekbass for the bumper music. The music is from this album; he’s a talented guy, and highly recommended.

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.

Ryan Hanigan
2012 Slash Line: .274/.365/.338
2013 Projection: .275/.370/.355

Devin Mesoraco
2012 Slash Line: .212/.288/.352
2013 Projection: .255/.325/.440

2012 Hanigan WAR: 2.9
2013 Best Guess Hanigan WAR: 2.5
Projected Difference: -0.4
2013 Floor: 1.0
2013 Ceiling: 4.0

2012 Mesoraco/Navarro WAR: 0.4
2013 Best Guess Mesoraco WAR: 1.5
Projected Difference: +1.1
2013 Floor: 0.5
2013 Ceiling: 3.0

Total Projected Catcher WAR: 4.0
Total Projected Difference: +0.6

Sorry for the run of numbers at the top, catcher is a complicated position to project.

Okay, let’s start with the basics: It looks like Mesoraco is going to be the #2 catcher. He’s having the better spring and he’s already on the roster. I don’t think Miguel Olivo really has a shot.

On performance: Offensively, we know what we’re getting with Hanigan. Plenty of OBP, no power at all, but certainly good enough for a catcher. The slight regression you see has to do with the unpredictable nature of defensive stats. Not included in his WAR value (because no one includes this), is his value as a pitch-framer. I’ve written about this before (most recently in the Redleg Annual which you can, conveniently, get here), but he gets a lot of credit for how Reds pitchers perform and has certainly earned the right to be a #1 catcher.

It won’t last forever, though, and Mesoraco should start stepping it in now. I want to dispense with the Mesoraco naysayers right away. Last year, he did poorly in a small sample of at bats and had terrible BABIP luck (the worst luck on the team, as it happens). Not to be overly confrontational, but any language about him blowing an opportunity or wilting under pressure is just nonsense. He. Had. Bad. Luck. In. A. Small. Sample.

It is entirely possible (though unlikely) that he will never pan out, but we learned nothing useful about that from his performance last year. He should improve drastically this year and my projections are in no way out of line with others you can find. I would not e surprised at all to see him hit well enough to take at bats away from Hanigan. It is conceivable that he could outhit Hanigan, Frazier, Cozart, and Phillips. I don’t think he will, but he could. So, if you’re still assuming he’s a bum. Stop it. He’s a kid. And he had a rough first go round.

I’ve said my piece on each player. I suspect a lot of you will take issue with some of it. That’s cool. I’m ready for a good old fashioned debate. In the end, I think the Reds will have a very god catching tandem this year, and depending on Mesoraco, it could be excellent.

Redleg Nation Season Preview Schedule

Joey Votto – 2/27
Brandon Phillips – 3/1
Todd Frazier – 3/4
Zack Cozart – 3/6
Ryan Ludwick – 3/8
Shin-Soo Choo – 3/11
Jay Bruce – 3/13
Ryan Hanigan & Devin Mesoraco – 3/15
Bench – 3/18
Johnny Cueto & Mat Latos – 3/20
Aroldis Chapman & Mike Leake – 3/22
Homer Bailey & Bronson Arroyo – 3/25
Bullpen – 3/27
Updates & Preview Wrap-Up – 3/29

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.

The underlying concept of Moneyball really wasn’t about money. It was about smarts.

Michael Lewis’ influential book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (2003) chronicled the use of advanced statistical analytics by Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane. Beane’s basic premise was that small-market teams could compete against the big money stacks in baseball by using what Lewis called Moneyball. One famous example was placing emphasis on a player’s on base percentage (OBP) instead of his batting average.

But really, Moneyball was about being smart. An organization didn’t have to be cash-poor to take advantage of OBP. Smart organizations did, whether rich or poor.

And eventually, inefficiencies get solved by the market. Today virtually every major league franchise, from the Pirates to the Yankees, has adopted the specific lessons of Moneyball. Even the Cincinnati Reds (finally!) seem willing to pay for players with high OBP.

Because the OBP window has closed, teams have looked for other strategies to get ahead of conventional wisdom, such as placing value on players with above average defensive skills as a way to prevent runs. Of course, the cash-rich teams eventually outbid the rest for those players in the free agent market. After all, whether you’re rich or poor, it’s good to have money.

In the short term, the advantage goes to the team with smarts. But there’s a good chance the next Moneyball will be about money itself.

You see, baseball teams are suddenly awash with new cash, including the Cincinnati Reds. National television contracts and MLB’s advanced media arm will provide each franchise tens of millions of new dollars in the next few years. For example, MLB recently finalized the next set of contracts for its national television broadcast rights. The league signed 8-year agreements with ESPN, Fox Sports and TBS who will pay baseball a combined $12.4 billion. Split equally among all 30 clubs, the Reds share is $50 million/year, compared to the current contract’s $24 million/year.

The Reds will also benefit financially from the league’s new revenue sharing program established in the 2011 collective bargaining agreement. Attendance figures at GABP grew by 133,000 in 2012 over 2011, providing another $7 million in estimated revenues. The experience of teams like Milwaukee shows that clubs have been able to sustain attendance growth as long as they continue to put successful teams on the field. Playoff participation also generates new revenue.

As most of you know, the Reds will be renegotiating their local media contract in the next few years. Examples from San Diego and Cleveland give every reason to believe the new agreement will bring the Reds tens of millions in new revenue.

Bottom line: Over the next five years or so, the Reds can reasonably expect $100 million in new revenues. To put that in perspective, the overall estimated income for the Reds in 2011 was $185 million.

If ownership follows through on its promise to invest new revenues back into the club — and they have shown every indication they will — the Reds payroll could exceed $160 million by 2017.

Back to the next version of Moneyball – money. Every major league team will benefit to some extent by this new cash infusion. The next market inefficiency will be clubs that are slow to recognize the reality of it. The faster teams like the Reds adapt, the more effectively they will behave.

We’ve already seen important signs that the Reds get it: the Votto, Bruce and Phillips contracts; the talk of signing Mat Latos and Homer Bailey to extensions; and the expanded overall payroll from $82 million in 2012 to around $100 million in 2013. Scouting and player development remain crucial, because the Reds will continue to be outbid by the likes of the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies and Nationals in the free agent market.

But by using their new revenues to hold on to the players they develop within the organization, the Reds will be practicing Real Moneyball.

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.

I hadn’t written about this subject, because I really wanted the whole issue to go away. I should have known better than to be optimistic about that. Here’s our friend Dave Schoenfield from ESPN:

Manager Dusty Baker — and the players — think Aroldis Chapman should remain the team’s closer; general manager Walt Jocketty, with the support of pitching coach Bryan Price, is telling Baker that Chapman will be in the rotation. Whether Baker likes it or not.

There are a multitude of issues in this controversy. It’s a symbolic example of today’s game, where the GM constructs the roster and even tells the manager how to use it. It brings up the argument over the value of a closer. And lurking below those two, what’s best for Chapman? We’ve seen other relievers successfully transition into the rotation — C.J. Wilson and Chris Sale to name two — but last year we also saw Daniel Bard implode and Neftali Feliz blow out his elbow.

But this situation has a pretty obvious answer:

1. Baker is wrong.
2. Jocketty is right.

Even better is Schoenfield’s conclusion:

Baker may not like the move now, but something tells me he’ll be OK with it once Chapman is 10-4 in late June with a 2.87 ERA, is leading the NL in strikeouts and makes the All-Star team.

Love that optimism.

I could go into the many reasons why I agree with Schoenfield here; a better idea would be for you to read Dave’s post on the matter. It’s spot-on, in every way. Better yet, go read Redleg Nation‘s previous posts about Aroldis. At least that will keep me from repeating myself in this space.

Meanwhile, while everyone (including Dusty) is salivating over Chapman’s perceived value as a closer, chew on this little morsel. Chapman’s percentage of recorded saves as a Red: 83%. Francisco Cordero’s save percentage as a Red: 86%. Aroldis just isn’t that much more valuable than other people who can close out games.

As a starter, however, Chapman has a chance to be elite. I just can’t understand why someone wouldn’t want to see if he can handle rotation duties. The upside is enormous. The downside is negligible.

Stay the course, Walt Jocketty. You’re doing the right thing here.

Post Author: Reds: Redleg Nation.