I have yet to fully express my thoughts regarding the matter of Nolan Ryan’s recent transgressions. This is part in due to my preference to sit back, observe and then analyze information, especially of this magnitude. And as with any big story, there have been many ambiguous reports, particularly from the Fort-Worth Star-Telegram’s Randy Galloway, who adamantly defends Nolan Ryan’s pride in light of the news of Jon Daniels’ promotion and simultaneously paints a picture that seems to show the formation of two opposing camps within the Rangers’ front office: That of GM Jon Daniels, and of CEO Nolan Ryan.

Jun 24, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers president Nolan Ryan smiles during the eighth inning of the game against the Colorado Rockies at Rangers Ballpark. The Rangers beat the Rockies 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Under normal circumstances, I would wait for more definitive news to emerge in relation to matters like this one, as observations are just that, observations. But Nolan Ryan’s silence has broken my own silence on this issue.

In an excellent observational article on BBTiA by Mike Hindman, it is made rather clear that Jon Daniels is not the harsh and power-hungry brainiac that Galloway portrays him as, rather, Jon Daniels is depicted as a motivational leader whose purpose is to build an entirely cooperative organization in every facet of the game with a major dependence on the scouting department. So far, Jon Daniels has achieved his mission, but this victory seems to have been defeated.

In a a recent Galloway piece, which has been “thoroughly sourced”, I found one quote in particular from Rangers co-owner, Bob Simpson rather interesting:

“Nolan is a treasure for us. His wisdom and his counsel are invaluable. And if anyone in his camp has taken these latest moves the wrong way, then that needs to be addressed.”

I find this interesting for one sole reason. The fact that Bob Simpson himself has acknowledged the existence of Nolan Ryan’s “camp”. This of course seems to go against any and everything that Jon Daniels has established. So there is evidently some level of conflict within the Rangers’ front office, be it for whatever reason or to whatever extent, it still exists.

Personally, I’ve always viewed Nolan Ryan within the light of what he brings to the team and also appreciated the legitimacy he brought to the Texas Rangers franchise in terms of him being the essential face of the organization. But that is where the line is drawn. Objectively, Nolan Ryan does not bring very much to the organization. Jon Daniels and the scouting department are the anchors of the organization, and continue to be so. So if Nolan Ryan was to leave the organization tomorrow, the front office would carry on with its business as it has with him.

Evidently, as indicated by anonymous sources to Galloway, Ryan’s camp is upset with the lack of gratification for what Nolan Ryan has done for the Texas Rangers. Objectively, this isn’t much of an issue, as the team would carry on just fine with or without the Texas icon. Subjectively, this is a PR disaster.

And where there is smoke, there is fire. But why is there even a fire on the first place?

Hubris.

The silence on behalf of Nolan Ryan speaks volumes. The fact that Nolan Ryan has yet to disquiet any and all flames stemming from his end of the fiasco is alarming. Remember, this wasn’t an issue until members of Ryan’s “camp” leaked information of Ryan’s discontent with the direction of the front office. So why would Ryan’s “camp” do such a thing?

Manipulation.

To the casual fan, Nolan Ryan is larger than life. He is a Texas icon. He is the man behind the resurgence of the Texas Rangers. All of these things are true, except for the last part of course. Nolan Ryan has the heart of the majority of the fans and is playing the victim when in fact he himself is the perpetrator of the fiasco.

In clear defiance of Jon Daniels’ ideals, Nolan Ryan has essentially manipulated the fans through his “camp” leaking information of Ryan’s discontent with Jon Daniels’ promotion and of the lack of appreciation for what Nolan brings to the franchise, then followed by Ryan’s untimely and seemingly unassuming silence.

It was recently made clear that Nolan Ryan will be remaining with the Rangers, and will continue to meet with the owners, but regardless of this development, a line has been drawn in the sand, and this is all because of Nolan Ryan’s arrogance as to his purpose within the organization. And what about Ryan’s “camp”? What about Jon Daniels’ allegiance to synergy?

Clearly, Rangers owners Bob Simpson and Ray Davis have entrusted the direction and central decision making of the organization to Jon Daniels, and deservedly so. So with the owners’ desire to have Nolan Ryan staying with the franchise, it isn’t so much an issue as to what he brings to the table, but to avoid the potential PR disaster and to appease his apparent “camp”. But with a clear line drawn within the front office, something will inevitably break again, and hopefully it will end with the fans finally seeing Nolan Ryan’s act of hubris.

Post Author: Rangers: Fansided Nolanwritin.

Per Adam Rubin, on Monday the Rangers “inquired” about Tigers RHP Rick Porcello, which, logically, was most likely prompted by Martin Perez‘s arm injury over the weekend. If I’m Adam Rubin, who is an ESPN New York writer, I’d have no reason to blindly speculate about teams from Detroit and Texas. So from his end, it seems legit; how far the Rangers have been inquiring is very much up for debate.

It did, however, get me thinking about a scenario where Rick Porcello was the 5th starter in the Rangers’ rotation, at least until Colby Lewis returns from injury.

To keep matters simple (if not mildly realistic), for the context of this hypothetical reality, Porcello will be traded to the Rangers, and in return the Tigers will receive SS prospect Luis Sardinas, and a lesser prospect that isn’t worth much.

To begin the season, that would give the Rangers a rotation of Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando and Rick Porcello.

At the end of May, let’s assume Colby Lewis returns from injury and is good to go. If we also assume none of the five Rangers’ starters are injured, that leaves us with 6 pitchers and only 5 spots to put them.

To create equity within the rotation, that would likely mean one of the following scenarios needs to come true:

• Alexi Ogando for some reason struggles in the rotation, and the team inevitably feels best putting him back in the bullpen. This gives us a rotation of Darvish, Harrison, Holland, Porcello and Lewis.
• Ogando and Porcello each out-pitch Derek Holland. In this situation, the Rangers probably look to trade Holland, because I can’t imagine they would waste a year of his value pitching in a low- to mid-leverage relief role.
• Ogando and Holland each show more upside than Porcello, and Porcello is flipped elsewhere for a prospect to compensate for the loss of Sardinas. The rotation would then be what everyone expects it to look like in June: Darvish, Harrison, Holland, Ogando and Lewis.

Another positive to acquiring Rick Porcello would be the marginally added flexibility of not needing to bring Colby Lewis back prematurely. If we do not get Porcello, and Justin Grimm struggles pitching out of the 5-spot, it would stand to reason that both Lewis and the Rangers’ brain trust considers bumping his return schedule to satisfy the need. With Porcello in the last spot instead of Grimm, Texas would be able to take its time with Lewis.

Of course, one often-used and often-true cliche is “you can never have enough pitching”. There’s a reason for that. Pitchers go down with injuries — ranging from fluky to catastrophic — all the goddamn time. Right now, it’s safe to say the Rangers are banking on quite a bit from Darvish, Harrison, Holland and Ogando. If any of those four go down with a ghastly injury that stretches over an extended period of time, our odds of making the postseason dramatically alter (and not in a good way). Having an extra option like Porcello provides both insurance towards a potential injury, as well as a valuable trade chip. His addition would theoretically act two-fold.

Those opposing this plan ask, “Why would we give up a solid prospect like Sardinas, for example, for a 6th starting pitcher?”

I only have two reasons:

(1) Rick Porcello isn’t chopped liver on the mound. In the last three years he’s generated 2.0, 2.7 and 2.9 fWAR, respectively, and brings with him a career 52.3% ground ball rate. If not elite, his GB% is highly, highly, above-average. His career ERA (4.55) is nothing to write home about, though his xFIP (4.10) suggests his ERA should be about a half-run better.

The reason? It’s no secret he plays in front of the worst defensive infield in baseball, featuring Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder on either corner, and the inept Jhonny Peralta at shortstop. If you ask me, bringing in a 24 year-old whose career appears to be trending upward, and having him pitch in front of three plus defenders — Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Ian Kinsler — seems like a pretty decent idea.

(2) The goal in executing a trade for Rick Porcello is pretty basic; if everything works out according to plan with Colby Lewis, then Porcello becomes trade bait to a team desperate for a starting pitcher. Perhaps a team willing to overpay for a starting pitcher. If he were to bring back a prospect of the same level — or better — than Luis Sardinas, then the Porcello investment would be a successful one. Particularly if he gives us a solid two months of pitching.

- – -

To keep it to fewer words, this is essentially what I’m saying:

• No, I don’t think the Rangers will make a serious push to get Porcello, mainly because I don’t think the Tigers would give him up for only Luis Sardinas. I can’t see how the Tigers could justify to their fan base that they are giving up a 24 year-old former first round pick for Sardinas, a shortstop who’s yet to see AA, and who isn’t on any top-100 lists that I’m aware of. Perception matters.
• No, I don’t think the Ranger fan base is particularly thrilled with adding Porcello. I can only assume the reasoning sounds something like, “He’s not even good enough to be one of the 5-best pitchers on his own team.” If you look at the bare bones, three arbitration years of Porcello are much more valuable than however much money he will be making per year. If absolutely nothing else, he would be a pitcher we could gain surplus value from, and if we need to trade him, he would be a valuable commodity on the open market.
• So long as it didn’t cost us the cream of our farm system (Profar, Olt, Gallo, Guzman, Mazara, Beras, Alfaro), I would be on board with pulling the trigger. Detroit has to do something with Porcello, in all likelihood, because they can’t go into the year with a 6-man rotation. That gives the Rangers more leverage in trade discussions.

Post Author: Rangers: Fansided Nolanwritin.

Because I skipped a day before finishing Ian Kinsler’s profile, the day of reckoning will soon approach where I’ll be forced to consolidate these long-ish types of articles into two short(er) ones to compensate for the missing day. This is not one of those days.

After handling the starting rotation, catcher, and both the 1st and 2nd basemen, today we shift focus to the adjacent side of the diamond with the Rangers’ 3rd baseman, Adrian Beltre.

Not a whole lot needs to be said about Adrian, to be honest, as he figures to be the key bat in our lineup in 2013, as well as the most veteran of all the current position player veterans. Beltre, 33, will be entering his 3rd of 5 guaranteed seasons with the Rangers, as he was inked to a 5-year, $80 million free agent contract (with a vesting option in year-6) before the 2011 season.

So far, he’s been magnificent.

In 2011, he produced an offensive clip of .296/.331/.561 (134 wRC+, 5.6 fWAR), which was succeeded by an even more stellar 2012, where he hit at a triple slash of .321/.359/.561 (140 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR). Combined with his defense, which is arguably/universally known as the best 3rd base glove in the Major Leagues, and he’s been worth 12.1 fWAR in two years. That’s the highest total of any full-time 3rd baseman in that time.

If you think about that for a minute, the math is startling, but in a good way. Given the price of each WAR is $5 million, that means he’s already accumulated $60 million in value (12.1 fWAR x $5 million) in just two years. Wrap your heads around that. It means, to justify the terms of his contract from a WAR perspective, he needs to produce about 4.0 wins over the next 3 years. He might accomplish that by the time August rolls around in 2013. Seriously. There was certainly some trepidation amongst Rangers’ fans a couple years ago when he was signed for so long and for so many dollars — probably due to the futile years he spent in Seattle — but it undoubtedly appears Jon Daniels knocked this one out of the park. 

But maybe you don’t give a damn about WAR. Maybe you couldn’t care less about how his overall game translates into quantifiable, objective data. That’s fine. Whether you elect to view it from the perspective of “he’s a good clubhouse presence,” or “he’s a strong leader,” or whatever, Adrian Beltre still checks out. He offers a seasoned palate of intangibles as well as an elite skill set, so there’s nothing left to argue about. Adrian Beltre is the most important player in our lineup. And that’s basically that.

If we had known what we were getting ourselves into, we sure as hell would have paid more than $80 million for him. Baseball is funny like that, because while we, as fans, were all running around like chickens with our heads cut off when Cliff Lee decided to sign with Philadelphia, the ensuing Adrian Beltre signing felt more like a disappointing afterthought. We were more like Well, that’s cool, I guess. Now we can sit back, reflect, and appreciate the phenomenal string of success Cliff Lee had in Texas, while at the same time knowing just how good we have it with a franchise cornerstone such as Beltre holding down the fort at 3rd base.

For what it’s worth, Bill James has Beltre producing a triple slash line of .291/.338/.504 in 2013, while FanGraphs has him penciled in at .299/.339/.522, worth another 6.1 fWAR.

If you’re asking me, which I don’t know why you would, I believe Adrian has one more elite season left in him. Remember, he is on the wrong side of 30, and you never really know when production will escape a player. It might not happen until his contract expires, but, thinking logically, you have to figure it will begin to precipitously decline at some point relatively soon. Beltre is such a hallmark for consistency that his offensive numbers will very likely continue to be strong, and that’s something the Rangers need mightily in 2013. Without a strong year from Beltre, Texas may find themselves in a precarious situation come trade deadline time. However, if I had to put a number on it, I’d say Adrian is a solid bet to produce between 5.5 and 6.0 fWAR in 2013, perhaps putting himself in the MVP discussion again.

Addendum: 49ers 26, Ravens 13

As you well know by now, Jonathan Mayo dropped his Top 100 Prospects for 2013, and Rangers’ rookie shortstop, Jurickson Profar, is the top rated prospect in the game of baseball. No surprise there, as Profar was also the top rated prospect in various other previous rankings.

Sep 19, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Texas Rangers shortstop Jurickson Profar (right) talks with first base coach Gary Pettis during batting practice before a game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angels Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Total, the Rangers have accumulated 5 prospects in the top 100 (Jurickson Profar #1, Mike Olt #22, Cody Buckel #87, Jorge Alfaro #88, and Martín Pérez #95).

As expected, former standout LHP Martín Pérez has dropped considerably in rankings due to his continued regression during his ascension, but the jury is still out on the 21-year old, as Pérez is obviously very young and still has plenty of time to put it all together, if ever. Perhaps most important to Pérez is dropping his BB/9. If Pérez can successfully accomplish that, he is the Rangers’ strongest internal option for the #5 spot in the rotation to start the 2013 season.

Interestingly, Jorge Alfaro has cracked the Top 100. Alfaro is a 19-year old catching prospect whom, if he can reach his ceiling, projects to be an front-line MLB catcher, something that is becoming more and more of a rare commodity within the game of baseball. 2013 will be a big year for Alfaro, as this season could be the one in which Alfaro’s incredibly raw toolset begins attaining refinement, or the other way around. Only time will tell, but Alfaro is incredibly important to the Rangers’ future, especially after considering that the minor league system lacks any potential difference-making catching prospects.

If Mayo’s Top 100 signifies anything, it is that the Rangers still possess one of the strongest farm systems in baseball. Aggressive international signings, together with unconventional drafting methods, has enriched the lower echelons of the minor league system, with names like Joey Gallo, Lewis Brinson, Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman and Jairo Beras.

The Rangers minor league system also gives a clear indication of the self-sustaining machine that Jon Daniels and the Front Office have envisioned for the team and its future.

Obviously, most prospects fizzle out and/or don’t reach their ceilings, but with a great quantity of quality prospects, the odds of developing future stars are much more likely. The Rangers know this, and have shown this knowledge with their preference to draft players who possess strong tools, and not necessarily the most projectable talent, as compared to conventional drafting methods.

2013 will be a big year for many of the Rangers prospects. It will be an interesting thing to watch who progresses onto 2014.

The Rangers’ offseason is intellectually frustrating.

Granted, one could easily argue that each move made by Jon Daniels has been the smart one, the star power that’s been ostracized from Arlington publicly outweighs the perception of a good savings. Of the players Daniels did sign (Joakim Soria @ 2/$8M, A.J. Pierzynski @ 1/$7.5M, Jason Frasor @ 1/$1.5M, and lastly Lance Berkman @ 1/$11M), the financial obligation has been minimal, and the allotted years, short. That is cost-effective business, and that’s good. What it isn’t is sexy, and it won’t satiate the media pundits, or the fans who were hoping for more.

According to a recent article by some writer who I can’t think of right now, the Rangers’ roster is currently making a total of $107 million, with the $10 million owed to former Face Of The Franchise — Michael Young — taking the cumulative payroll to a not so even $117 million.

It could boil down to how much I write about them, but this year in particular I’ve grown exhausted by the cyclical, unchanging process of the offseason. I’ve been digging deeper and deeper down my own dark sports reality, filled with front office conspiracies and under-the-table handshakes from every angle. The truth is, most all things I imagined to be on the precipice of happening, just simply didn’t happen. And that’s all it is. Zack Greinke was the pinnacle target, Justin Upton was supposedly a lock to be traded here, and if not them, someone else who possessed the means to create a magnificent shift within the fabric of the Texas Rangers. Nothing materialized, and it appears nothing will materialize, and that’s frustrating.

It reminds me of a John Lennon song I’ve grown fixated with over the last several days titled Watching The Wheels. I think my interpretation of the lyrics are a bit misconstrued when I’m of a particularly specific mind state (that I won’t get into right now in fear of alienating part of the audience), but one line stands out:

People say I’m lazy, dreaming my life away 

Well they give me all kinds of advice, designed to enlighten me

Ostensibly, it’s not profound. It’s actually rather simplistic in nature. But if you listen, like really listen, you’ll notice the way he enunciates the middle of “designed” makes it sound like the “they” whom he speaks of are correct, and that maybe he’s been wrong all along. It connotes a certain level of arrogance from Lennon, yet he has the humility to admit he doesn’t have all the answers. Something about that concept is fascinating to me, perhaps because I, myself, don’t possess the intestinal fortitude to disclose the same.

This can apply to life as a whole, but for the context of this article it’s relatable to my convictions with the Rangers, as well. I’ve said a great many things — which even predated the offseason — that I thought would be smart, or right, and the fact is that mostly none of them have come true. Namely Zack Greinke and Justin Upton.

Either way, it’s hard to get excited about minor acquisitions to aged veterans when I was misled to think bigger, and bolder. It’s like expecting a surprise gift for Christmas and coming out with only everything I asked for. Yeah, it’s cool, you know. We’ll be a good team in 2013 and everything. But I wanted more.

I suppose it’s just an exercise in being appreciative, and humble, and patient for what is to come. I just hate to wait.