Will Padres OF Cameron Maybin avoid an early season slump in 2013?

The Yasmani Grandal saga and the Friars’ Starting Rotation Shakeup are bound to be the two biggest story-lines coming out of Peoria this Spring.  And honestly, why shouldn’t they be?  I mean, it’s not every year that a franchise’s future star is busted, and subsequently suspended for the first 50 games of a regular season due to a PED violation.  Moreover, it is of the utmost importance that Manager Bud Black and Pitching Coach Darren Balsley are able find a way to cobble together an effective Starting Pitching staff before April begins.

Aside from Grandal and the Starting Staff, I am also intrigued to see another Padres-related question answered once the regular season begins:

 

Will Cameron Maybin avoid an early season slump at the plate?

The Padres will need Maybin to start this year without a slump. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

 

To be perfectly frank, the months of March, April, May, and June were anything but kind to the Padres’ Centerfielder in 2012.  In fact, Cameron had more than his fair share of issues over those four crucial months.  Worst of all was the fact that Maybin struggled so mightily after he signed a contract worth $25 million over 5-years during Spring Training.

Over Maybin’s first 73 Games, he hit a dreadful .204 in 260 At-Bats to go along with 6 Doubles, 4 Triples, 3 Home Runs, and 23 RBI’s.  Although Maybin’s 16 Stolen Bases were a solid number, he amassed 60 Strikeouts and only 27 Walks during that span to go along with a .282 On-Base Percentage and a .292 Slugging Percentage.

In fact, on June 28th, Maybin was sitting with a .198 Batting Average!  Had Maybin not finished the month of June going 3 for his last 8 over his final two games, he would have finished with a Batting Average below .200!  To the Centerfielder’s credit though, he turned things around from an Offensive standpoint during the months of July, August, and September last year.  In fact, over his final 74 games during those three months, Maybin seemed to improve production-wise in almost every major Offensive category.

Overall, Maybin posted a .283 Batting Average over 247 At-Bats in addition to 14 Doubles, 1 Triple, 5 Home Runs, and 22 RBI’s.  Despite the fact that his Strikeout to Walk ratio was still high (50 to 17) during said span, Maybin still recorded a .333 On-Base Percentage, and a .409 Slugging Percentage to go along with 10 Stolen Bases to close the season.

As enjoyable as it was to watch Maybin, along with the rest of the Padres’ struggling hitters, get back on track, San Diego was essentially out of postseason contention back in June.  The team started off so poorly at the plate that the Friars were never really able to recover in the standings despite their late-season ability to win more games than they lost.  “Too little…too late” would probably be the best way to describe San Diego’s hitters last year as their efforts down the stretch did not make up for their production, or lack thereof, during the months of April and May.

 

Final Thoughts

Every team could stand to use a talented combination of speed, power, and base-running savvy from the #7 spot in the batting order.  Interestingly enough, that is the type of skill-set which Maybin can bring to the table when he is playing well.  Overall, Cameron possesses the necessary tools to be an explosive table-setter for the Friars, and can even chip in when it comes to driving Runs across when the need presents itself.  But when close to half of the year is spent with Maybin languishing and trying to hit above “The Mendoza Line,” it certainly does not benefit him and the lineup around him in the least bit.

Maybin has already suffered one setback this Spring, and his wrist injury is projected to keep him out for a short period of time.  I have no idea how this will affect his performance by the time Opening Day rolls around, but it certainly cannot help him in any way, shape, or form.  Hopefully the Padres’ Centerfielder is able to begin the 2013 season “hot,” and maintain his success at the plate throughout the regular season.  Thus, another big 2013 regular season question will be:

 

Will 2013 finally be the year that Cameron Maybin produces consistently as a hitter?

 

 

Stats Courtesy of: Baseball Reference



Post Author: Padres: Fansided ChickenFriars.

Padres’ position battles: Middle infield

Last week, I kicked off the Spring Training Position Battle series on the starting rotation. This week we move on to the middle infield.

The news of Everth Cabrera linked to the Biogenesis lab in Miami serves as the perfect segue into part two of the Spring Training Position Battles series.

In this series, we will take an in depth look at some of the positions that up for grabs. We will analyze candidates at that position and track each player’s progress throughout the spring.

July 29, 2012; Miami, FL, USA; San Diego Padres second baseman Alexi Amarista (5) throws over to first base during a game against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Situation: Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett opened the Padres’ 2012 season at second base and shortstop, respectively. Hudson was inconsistent at second and Bartlett hardly played.

Padres’ general manager Josh Byrnes was not satisfied with the production from the middle infield, and by June, the Padres released Hudson and went with a youth movement.

Byrnes acquired Alexi Amarisa from the Angels, Everth Cabrera made the move from Triple-A Tucson to the Padres, and Logan Forsythe got healthy. All three drastically improved the infield at mid-year.

Amarista, Cabrera and Forsythe will make the roster, but highly touted prospect Jedd Gyrko will be on their heels.

If Gyrko locks up the second base job it then is interesting to see who will command short. Is it Cabrera, Forsythe or Amarista?

New additions: The Padres didn’t make many moves to their roster; however, the moves they did make came on the pitching side. The Padres did add two players in minor leaguer A.J. Kirby-Jones, acquired in the Tyson Ross deal, and journeyman Cody Ransom.  Neither of them poses a threat to take the second base or shortstop job.

Outlook: I personally think Gyrko will be the second baseman come opening day, with Forsythe moving to the Super Utility role along side Amarista. Cabrera isn’t moving. He is perfectly fine at short, despite being linked to PED’s

This is the Spring Training Position Battles: Middle Infield. Stay tuned next week for a new position battle. Let us know in the comment box below who you would like to see win the two middle infield spots.

 



Post Author: Padres: Fansided ChickenFriars.

Padres Fanfest Firsthand

Padres Fanfest 2013 brought over 2000 adults, families and children to the ballpark for a chance to get on the field, sit in the dugout, and meet players. With various activities and merchandise sales, and even food and beverage stands open for the day, the atmosphere was festive, and the scenery was great. Petco Park is truly just a beautiful and great place to be, with lots of places to explore and hang out. The highlight of my day came in the form of a group Q&A session with Buddy Black, and AJ Hinch, along with the FoxSports News team. I had a chance to ask Bub Black a question about the 25 man roster and represent Chicken Friars.

Here’s a look at some first hand pictures of the ballpark and Padres Fanfest 2013.  I’m getting pumped up about the upcoming season.

 



Post Author: Padres: Fansided ChickenFriars.

San Diego Padres Prospects in 2013

I love lists.

I love prospects.

I love lists of prospects.

I super-mega-love lists of Padres prospects.

MLB.com. Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America. Baseball Russia, Baseball Whatever…. any list… just give me my prospects please.  PLEASE!

I love the intrigue. I love the possibilities.  I love the love boat. I love dreaming of future stars like Matt Bush and Donavan Tate.

Thats what I love.

However, do I love the current Padres prospects?  Um, I do.  Wait! I don’t.  Just kidding, I do!! Wait, wait, wait, STOP!!

I’m not too bright.  I have no ability to rate these prospects myself. (I recall my thoughts: “Donovan Tate will become Padre-Gold”  He’ not quite there yet?  Soon, I’m sure.)

OK, I won’t attempt my own prospects list; I’ll do what us math-dorks do. I’ll use the aggregate expert analyses from these guys:

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com

John Sickels, SB Nation

Matt Eddy, Baseball America

Padres Prospects, Padres Prospects**

Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus

 

**Our friends at PadresProspects.com have not yet released their 2013 preseason prospects list.  I have used their list from the end of 2012, but I felt their expertise in Padres players was needed in this sample.

 

I used the typical “10 points for a first place vote, 9 points for a second place vote, etc” scoring system from these top-ten lists.

Top Padres prospects (total score):

T1: Jedd Gyorko (41)

T1: Rymer Liriano (41)

3:  Austin Hedges (39)

4: Max Fried (38)

5: Casey Kelly (35)

T6: Matt Wisler (17)

T6: Joe Wieland (17)

8: Keyvius Sampson (12)

9: Joe Ross (10)

10: Adys Portillo (9)

T11:Joe Wieland (7)

T11: Cory Spangenberg (7)

13: Donn Roach (2)

 

MY NOTES AND THOUGHTS:

The first thing I notice is that there is a natural break after Casey Kelly at #5; Gyorko, Liriano, Hedges, Fried, and Kelly are the top 5 Padres prospects. There doesn’t seem to be much debate on this.

 

Can Spangenberg hit at the upper levels?

 

I would love to get excited about Fried but, Bush, Carillo, Ramos, Antonelli, Schmidt, Dykstra, Tate, etc…. we’ll see.  My point is that every first round pick immediately goes into the Padres top ten and then begins his slow descent.

 

Parks and Sickels both list Hedges at their #1 prospect.  (I don’t know about you but it’s hard do get excited about a catcher that can block balls in the dirt…. woohoo. that’s thrilling.. yeah.)   Parks: “(Hedges) Lacks plus offensive tools; tripped up by off-speed offerings; defense will always be the bread winner.”

 

Gyorko and Kelly will most likely come off this list when they lose their prospect eligibility this year, but they should make significant contributions to the major league club.   Mayo: “(Gyorko’s) quick and compact swing is built for average and power, and he shows an outstanding ability to drive the ball to all fields.”

 

Liriano is the most intriguing prospect.  Massive upside, but his bat only comes alive in June. How can the Padres fix this?

 

Wisler is coming up fast.  Sickels: “19 year old right-hander drafted in seventh round from Ohio high school in 2011 gained 8 MPH on fastball and dominated the Midwest League.”

 

One expert, PadresProspects.com, had Keyvius Sampson as their #2 prospect  last year, but I suspect that he will be several spots lower when they release their new rankings.

 

Donn Roach is a middling prospect but his bowling ball will play in the major leagues… this year.

 

Prediction:  Sampson and Portillo are eventually going to the bullpen.  Too much fastball without a 3rd pitch.  You next Joe Ross?

OK, thoughts?



Post Author: Padres: Fansided ChickenFriars.

More Good News Concerning the Padres Starting Rotation

When the offseason began, the Padres’ Starting Rotation had more questions than answers surrounding it.  San Diego’s brass however mostly “stood pat” over the Winter as they largely failed to acquire a significant amount of Starting Pitching help.  With only Tyson Ross, Tim Stauffer, and Freddy Garcia added to the mix, one could certainly argue that the Friars’ Starting Rotation still remains their “biggest question” as they begin Spring Training this week.

Hopefully Cashner can return healthy sooner than expected. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Luckily for San Diego’s brass and the Starting Staff as a whole, their young and promising Starters in the forms of Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland are making progress after both underwent elbow surgery last year.

But not only have the rehab. periods for Luebke and Wieland been going well, injured flame-thrower Andrew Cashner is also on schedule to return to the team sooner than expected from his injury.  According to a recent Tweet from Padres.com Beat Writer Corey Brock:

 

Sounds like Andrew Cashner could be on a mound by March 1.  He’s ahead of schedule a bit from lacerated thumb tendon. #Padres

 

Cashner as we all know sustained his thumb injury in a bizarre meat dressing accident which left the Right-Handed pitcher with a severed tendon in his pitching hand in December.  Not only will the flame-throwing Cashner be able to return to the team somewhat sooner than expected, but the Padres will be able to welcome another potential contributor to the Starting Rotation sooner as opposed to later this year.

Last year, Cashner was actually the team’s Setup Man for the first two months of the season.  Yet after injuries had forced the Padres to scramble for replacements for the injured Wieland, Stauffer, Luebke, and Dustin Moseley, Cashner was enlisted to help the team as a Starter when June began.  After a solid start against the Astros after a stint in the Minors, Cashner unfortunately injured his right lat muscle in early July against the Diamondbacks.  This injury in turn only allowed him to pitch in 3 games total over the rest of the season.  Although Cashner’s 2012 stat line of a 3-4 record with a 4.27 ERA in 33 Games is nothing to scoff at, I am sure the Padres were looking for a bit more production from the player they acquired in exchange for First Base prospect Anthony Rizzo.

Thankfully, it appears that Cashner could be ready to contribute and add himself and his rocket-arm to the currently murky Starting Rotation situation on the Padres’ hands.  And hey, if better options exist for the Padres to use instead of Cashner in their “Starting Five,” then that should not be an issue at all.  If and when the Right-Hander returns healthy and is not used as a Starter, he can always assume a role back in the Bullpen and chip in with the Setup and 7th Inning duties where he gained experience last year.

Overall, the more potential help is available to the Padres in a pitching-sense, the better.  Hopefully Cashner is able to make a speedy return, because the Friars might need him to log some significant Innings every fifth day.  And even if the team does not need him in that capacity, Cashner would surely provide some terrific depth to San Diego’s Bullpen also.

 

 

Stats & Contract Information Courtesy of: Baseball Reference



Post Author: Padres: Fansided ChickenFriars.

Projecting Padres Active 25 Man Roster – OF

Continuing from last week’s look at the Padres INF and C positions going into the season, today we look at the Padres OF and potential roster spots.  A note about jersey numbers.  In general, position players on the active roster tend to have lower numbers, while fringe players or camp player may have extremely high numbers by virtue of picking last.  As we can see here, 2 players, Asencio and Decker have yet to be assigned a number.  Likewise, their chances of making the roster are fairly slim.  Kyle Blanks, who was once touted as a possible successor to Adrian Gonzalez prior to injuries is sporting 88.  I hope that’s a lucky number, because he’s going to need it.  Let’s wish him good health.  The source of the following table is from the Padres main site.

San Diego Padres Active Roster
# Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
  Yeison Asencio R-R 6’1″ 175 Nov 14, 1989
88 Kyle Blanks R-R 6’6″ 270 Sep 11, 1986
22 James Darnell R-R 6’2″ 195 Jan 19, 1987
  Jaff Decker L-L 5’10″ 190 Feb 23, 1990
13 Chris Denorfia R-R 6’0″ 195 Jul 15, 1980
15 Jesus Guzman R-R 6’1″ 215 Jun 14, 1984
14 Mark Kotsay L-L 6’0″ 210 Dec 2, 1975
62 Rymer Liriano R-R 6’0″ 210 Jun 20, 1991
24 Cameron Maybin R-R 6’3″ 210 Apr 4, 1987
18 Carlos Quentin R-R 6’2″ 235 Aug 28, 1982
63 Edinson Rincon R-R 6’1″ 185 Aug 11, 1990
25 Will Venable L-L 6’2″ 200 Oct 29, 1982

September 27, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres pinch hitter Mark Kotsay (14) after scoring during the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

In general, about 5 spots are given to OF for the team.  Recently, there has been discussion of Logan Forsythe taking reps in the outfield and even fulfilling more of a super utility role.  If Alexi Amarista makes the team as primarily an INF, he can also play in the OF.  Thus 5 spots for OF players on the roster seems realistic.  The starters will include Quentin LF, Maybin CF, along with a RF platoon of Denorfia and Venable.  That ostensibly leaves 1 slot.  Kotsay has already signed for the year and seems to be useful for his leadership and pinch hitting.  This may leave Guzman without a roster spot on Padres. Or alternatively, given that Guzman has some versatility to play first base, along with his pinch hitting abilities and power, the Padres may elect to carry 6 OFs and carry 1 less pitcher or 1 less INF. I would imagine that Bub Black would prefer carry the standard set of pitchers and thus the position battle for last position player roster spot may come down to Amarista vs Guzman.

Outfield Reps & Added Versatility Should Benefit Both Logan Forsythe and the Padres

When one thinks of Padres and their Utility players, the names Jesus Guzman and Alexi Amarista immediately come to mind.  Both players however might have some company and increased competition for playing time at various spots around the field in 2013.

According to Corey Brock of Padres.com, the Friars are now attempting to use Infielder Logan Forsythe in a similar Infield/Outfield Utility capacity during the 2013 season.  The Padres’ Beat Writer reported last week that Forsythe worked out for the Coaching Staff in the Outfield, and it appears that the Padres would like to use their starting Second Baseman over the last half of the 2012 season out in Left Field at times during the 2013 season.

Forsythe could see some time in Left Field this year. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Although the attempt to use Forsythe in an expanded Utility role in 2013 itself might seem a bit odd and shocking at this point in the offseason, I believe that the move could pay huge dividends for both Logan and the Padres alike.

As far as Forsythe being moved to the Outfield, it certainly would not hurt the Padres to have some added depth roaming Petco Park’s grass, particularly in Left Field.  Although veteran Carlos Quentin is entrenched as the starter in Left, he does no possess the most healthy of knees, and could always use a late-Inning Defensive replacement or spot starter in his place.  Plus, I am sure that when the Padres are in an Interleague series on the road that Quentin will be used in a Designated Hitter role more than if it all in the Outfield.  Forsythe is sure to have some stiff competition to face in the form of Amarista though, especially because of the fact that “Little Ninja” is a backup at Second Base and Shortstop as well.

I certainly cannot blame the Padres for exploring such a move, especially with the way their Infield is projected to look to begin the season.  And for that specific that reason, a move to the Outfield would definitely benefit Forsythe if he wants to see more playing time in 2013.

In terms of Forsythe’s chances to start at Third Base, his natural spot, it is unlikely that Chase Headley will ever relinquish his starting spot for however long he is with the franchise.  Plus, the 2012 Gold Glove Award winner has started 424 games at the position over the last 3 years, so an injury to the team’s best player or a once-in-a-blue-moon day-off are really only Forsythe’s chance of starting there.

As Brock tweeted back in Decemeber, the starting Shortstop gig should be Everth Cabrera’s to lose this Spring.  So in the event that Cabrera has a strong Spring and can be a demon on the base-paths again in 2013, Forsythe is unlikely to see much time at Shortstop.  As far as available playing time at Second Base goes, Forsythe’s potential reps could hinge upon whether or not touted prospect Jedd Gyorko ends up making the big league roster out of Spring Training.  In the event that Gyorko sticks and stays and begins to see extended time at Second Base, Forsythe’s chances to start regularly in the Infield will surely be even more limited than they were last year.

As far as Forsythe’s offensive production is concerned, the Padres should at least try to find multiple ways to insert Forsythe into the lineup if he is able to produce as well as he did towards the end of last year.  Over the final two months of the 2012 season (48 Games), Forsythe hit .281 (48 for 171), smacked 7 Doubles, 1 Triple, 4 Home Runs, and put up 15 RBI’s to go along with a solid .404 Slugging Percentage.  During this period, Forsythe also proved he could make things happen on the base-paths as he scored 29 Runs and recorded and On-Base Percentage of .342 also.  No matter where he has to play, or who Forsythe has to fill in for, the Padres could definitely use a consistent bat in their lineup on a nightly basis, as well as a reliable bat off of the bench.

 

Final Thoughts

Forsythe’s progress in Left Field will definitely be a “Spring Storyline” to follow for us Frairs faithful.  If Forsythe illustrates that he is an adequate option in Left Field, I will also be intrigued to see what decisions San Diego inevitably makes regarding the futures of their other Utilitymen, Jesus Guzman and Alexi Amarista.

The more positions Forsythe can inevitably play, the more chances he will have to contribute and prove himself in the lineup on a consistent basis.  As I mentioned previously, the Padres might need Forsythe’s bat and his ability to get on base near the top lineup as much as possible, especially if the team begins the season slumping on Offense like they did in 2012.  Thus, the more capacities which Forsythe can be used, the better, because this team could need him in many different areas over the 162-game marathon of a regular season.

 

 

Stats & Contract Information Courtesy of: Baseball Reference

Chase Headley’s Contract Is A WIN-WIN

Hip Hip Hooray! Hip Hip Hooray! Hip Hip Hooray! Pop open the champagne bottles because there is FINALLY! something that we can toast to this off-season. As we lift up our glasses, we are toasting to the Padres and third baseman Chase Headley, who avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year $ 8.6 million contract, ESPN.com reports.

September 23, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley (7) hits the ball against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at AT

A lot of fans are still disappointed though because the contract is only for one-year, and not a multi-year one.

I just want to tell those fans to please stop complaining.

At least the Padres did something.  I actually like that this is only a one-year deal.

I really don’t think last season was a fluke year for Headley, but just in the case it was, the Padres would only be in debt to our 2012 Silver Slugger for a year instead of a lifetime. Let’s let the organization take this year to see if Headley can replicate the success of 2012.

If so, then you lock him up to a long-term deal the minute he starts making Petco Park look like Coors Field.

But, if Headley were to go completely down hill, then the Padres’ hands wouldn’t be so tied. I just want to make one-thing clear before I start getting nasty e-mails, I am not in any way suspecting Headley had a fluke year. And I whole heartily believe he is hitting his prime and will have continue success. It is just that the Padres have to really cover their butts. Historically, the Padres have had their fair share of bad contracts.

The most positive sign from all this is that the negotiations weren’t nasty.

Both Headley and the Padres were able to meet in the middle and agree to the $8.6 million price tag. Initially, the Padres had offered their best player a $7,075,000 million contract, Headley rejected their offer and asked for $10. 3 million. That is about $3.3 million a part. Being so far a part in dollar amount, negotiations or even arbitration could have turned out really ugly. Thank God it didn’t!

Instead both team’s were able to budge a little bit. The Padres will now pay Headley about $1.5 million more than what they originally wanted to, and Headley will  make about $1.8 million less than what he wanted.

This is really a win-win for both sides. Headley should definitely cash in after this contract.

This goes to show that if/when the Padres and Headley sit down at the negotiating table to discuss a long term deal there will be no sour grapes on either side. We should expect both to play nice and meet in the middle once again. Headley wants to get paid and Padres want to save money, I believe you can have it both ways.

This by far is the toast of the entire off-season.

CHEERS!

My Thoughts on the Padres and the Freddy Garcia & Tim Stauffer Signings

Hooray!  The Padres made some moves to sign more Starting Pitchers this offseason!  But before all of you “Friars Faithful” break out the party favors though, I must inform you that the Padres signed Freddy Garcia and Tim Stauffer to Minor League contracts.  So, sorry to those of you still clinging to the faint hope that the franchise would swing a trade for Rick Porcello, but a move like that at this point is nothing more than a fantasy.

Stauffer is back with the Padres. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Although I am not overly excited about these particular signings, I can definitely understand why each one was made.  In Stauffer’s case, the familiarity aspect probably weighed heavily, plus the fact that he has enjoyed some success in a Long Relief role back in 2010 as well.  Despite the fact that Stauffer’s health has failed him multiple times over the course of his career (most recently his right elbow), he has been productive when called upon and at full health (2011 Stats: 31 Starts, 9-12, 3.73 ERA, 185.2 IP, 128 K’s).

The signing also illustrates that the Coaching Staff is comfortable enough with Stauffer to give him another shot to compete for playing time.  And I am sure most Friars fans (including yours truly) can appreciate the veteran’s resiliency as he has battled back multiple times over his career from various injuries.  Think back to last February too Friars fans, it was Stauffer who was in line to be San Diego’s #1 Starter.  Thus, if the veteran’s overall health and pitching elbow permit him to, he could be in line to log some quality Innings for this team this year in some way shape or form.

The Garcia move is a tad puzzling, especially when one takes into account how the veteran will be turning 37 in October of this year.  What exactly the Padres expect to get out of a Pitcher who has seen his Innings decline in each of the last three seasons (157.0 to 146.2 to 107.1) and only threw a combined 149.0 in the three years before I’m not sure, but the team still needs emergency arms.  Keep in mind however that there have been some veteran Starters have enjoyed successful stints with the Padres as of late.  So if Garcia finds his way onto the big league roster, count me in as intrigued to see what transpires if he is given the chance to take the hill every fifth day.

At least to me, both cost-effective signings showed that the Padres obviously feel confident in the “Richard-Volquez-Stults-Marquis” Quartet projected to start the 2013 season.  Otherwise, G.M. Josh Byrnes would have likely made a stronger push to acquire more Starting Pitching depth during such a crucial offseason period for the rebuilding Padres.

It certainly appears that the Friars brass’ are trying to cover their Starting Pitching bases before this year begins, and I cannot blame the Front Office for trying to make moves no matter how minute they seem.  By June of last year, the team had already exhausted all of the Starting Rotation options who they believed were enough to get them through 2012’s 162-game marathon.  This in turn led the team to sign numerous veteran Free Agents, as well as bring up many Minor Leaguers who might not have been ready to contribute at those specific stages in their respective careers’.  By the All-Star Break, the Friars were all but eliminated and their lack of Starting Pitching was a big reason why.

How much Stauffer and Garcia will actually pitch in 2013 is still a mystery, and in what sort of capacity each will be used in as well should be an interesting thing to watch for during Spring Training.  Who knows though?  Maybe all of the guys slotted in front of the recently signed veteran Right-Handers can not only stay healthy this season, but pitch effectively enough to keep Stauffer and Garcia in the Minor Leagues or relegated to Relief duties.

At least, that’s what I hope will happen.  What actually will happen has yet to be determined.

 

 

Stats & Contract Information Courtesy of: Baseball Reference

What Cain, Votto deals mean to Padres

 

Matt Cain will now make at least $21.25 million on average over the next six years, possibly more if the one year option kicks in. $21.25 million is almost 40% of the Padres 2012 payroll. Joey Votto‘s new deal accounts for a even higher percentage. Votto’s reported 10-year, $225 million deal would put him at $22.5 million per year on average. In other words, 41% of the Padres 2012 payroll. These contracts send a clear message to teams like the Padres, and that message isn’t “you can’t compete.”

Not all teams can do it. Not all teams have the farm system talent to pull it off. Not all teams have savvy-enough GM’s to pull the trigger. But those that can do it a d have the talent must continue pulling said trigger. What’s the it we’re talking about? We’re talking about early, long-term contracts that buy-out arbitration and free agency years.

With Josh Byrnes at the helm, the Padres are proving they are one of those teams the ability to lock-up potential stars to team-friendly deals before they get too expensive. The Matt Cain and Joey Votto deals mean the Padres will have to do so more and do so with players that turn into stars. San Diego will never be able to afford a $20 million-plus contract, but they may have players that could be worth that eventually on the open market. Players like Cameron Maybin, Nick Hundley, Cory Luebke, Chase Headley*, and Yonder Alonso* are the types that could develop into stars and end up costing the Padres too much money.

*Neither Chase Headley or Yonder Alonso has received a contract extension. It’s not clear the team’s intent with Headley, but Alonso will likely have to prove himself for at least a year before a long-term deal is offered.

Let’s look at Cory Luebke first as a example. Sure he could flame out, but he’s got two important things going for him. One, he’s a lefty. Two, he can pitch anywhere. Maybe the second reason is the most important one. Luebke has an even 10 starts at Petco and 10 on the road. His ERA at home is 3.84, but his ERA on the road is 2.87. Opposing teams realize this and will continue to monitor. As a fan, we’d like to see that home ERA drop (and I’m sure it will), but scouts around the league certainly may want Luebke on their team considering he’s shown Petco isn’t the reason for his numbers. It’s his own talent.

Luebke’s contract is an example of moves the Padres have to make early in player’s careers. Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

Should Luebke have success anywhere near Cain’s, which I will add is not out of the question for all the naysayers out there, he will be worth far more than the Padres can afford.  At very least, the team should save a large chunk on the free agency year they bought and probably some on the arbitration years.  They also get at least one extra year of service that they otherwise wouldn’t have been able afford.  The Matt Cain deal just proves the Padres need to continue thinking and acting like they have with the Luebke contract.

Yonder Alonso, on the other hand, is a little more tricky.  He’s only had 117 major league at-bats, and he has three seasons before he’s even arbitration eligible.  However, he is a first baseman with power.  If Adrian Gonzalez proved anything to the Padres, it’s that a superstar can come out of nowhere.  Joey Votto’s contract with the Reds is enormous, and there is little reason to believe Alonso will be worth anywhere near that in his career.  However. even a fraction of the Votto contract is more than the Padres can afford.  His contract proves the Padres need to take risks on their long-term deals.  While Alonso has those three years of team control with no concern of arbitration until 2015, the Padres may want to look at a long-term deal before Alonso hits his first arbitration eligible year.

Depending on Alonso’s performance this year, the Padres may be faced with a fork in the road.  They can choose the path of long-term contract and risk any potential drop in numbers or injury.  Or they can choose the path of waiting for a couple of arbitration eligible years to pass, then working on a deal.  As we’ve discussed previously, arbitrators award power and average.  Alonso figures to have both, so the Padres will run the risk of quickly being out priced just in the arbitration process.

The Matt Cain and Joey Votto deals do not eliminate competitive balance.  Instead, they increase the pressure on GM’s to make business-savvy deals.  It’s not about baseball.  It is about winning and weighing the costs verse the benefits.  Contract extensions like Maybin’s, Hundley’s, and Luebke’s will become even more paramount as massive long-term deals continue to be signed.  The Padres cannot run the risk of playing with pre-arb eligible players as their only talent.  They need to lock up long-term, proven players.  That means taking risks up front.  The Cain and Votto should not signal the end of small-market success.  They should simply intensify the spotlight on small-market moves.

For all your Padres news and discussions follow us on Twitter @ChickenFriars, follow me on Twitter@the5_5Hole, and like our Facebook page.

What the Matt Cain and Joey Votto Deals Mean to the PadresChicken FriarsChicken Friars – A San Diego Padres Fan Site – News, Blogs, Opinion and More